AGP Executive Report

Brazil Supreme Court Power Struggle: Justice Flávio Dino ordered the immediate reinstatement of Brazil’s federal police chief Andrei Rodrigues, overturning a colleague’s firing and deepening a judiciary clash tied to the “Master Bank” probe and allegations of selective leaks ahead of the election. Lula Demands Full Transparency: Lula urged a complete lifting of confidentiality in investigations involving those implicated in the Master case, calling it Brazil’s biggest financial crime and pressing for urgent explanations. Betting Crackdown Watch: Lula is reportedly preparing a Provisional Measure that could restrict or even ban parts of Brazil’s sports betting market, with online casinos and certain betting formats under review. Logistics Investment: FedEx plans R$75m to expand international capacity and supply-chain operations in Brazil, adding 34 locations and upgrading logistics centers after exiting domestic delivery. Retail Warehousing Stress: Casas Bahia’s judicial reorganization has put warehouse assets under scrutiny, with investors watching vacancy and lease pricing in Brazil’s tight logistics market. Agriculture Caution: A McKinsey survey finds farmers are cutting or delaying spending as margins tighten, especially on fertilizer and equipment. BRICS in Focus: Brazil’s leaders are set to engage with the Sept. 12-13 BRICS summit in New Delhi, where payment, resilience and global economic reform are expected to dominate discussions.

BRICS Summit in India: South Africa’s Cyril Ramaphosa will attend the 18th BRICS Summit in New Delhi on Sept. 12-13, with leaders set to push trade, investment and global governance reform. Cross-border payments: India is steering talks toward linking existing fast-payment systems and CBDCs, not a new BRICS currency—an approach aimed at making transactions cheaper and faster. Brazil-EU trade pressure: Brazil signaled concern over the EU’s suspension of Brazilian meat imports and is weighing reciprocal measures as negotiations continue. Brazil economy watch: Brazil’s balance of trade posted a USD 7.4bn surplus in August, while the election backdrop keeps investors focused on reforms and growth. Energy & industry: SLB and Shearwater launched a new multi-client 3D seismic survey offshore Northern Brazil’s Equatorial Margin to support exploration decisions. Food & consumer: Nestlé is expanding in Brazil with new nutrition and health investment and a push into convenient dessert formats. Cyber risk: A Proofpoint survey finds cyber resilience improving for CISOs, but human risk and AI-related security duties are rising.

Brazil Trade: Brazil posted a USD 7.4bn trade surplus in August, up 23.8% year-on-year, with exports rising nearly 12.2% and total trade hitting a record USD 58.9bn for the month. Beef Exports: China’s quota hit again—Brazilian chilled and frozen beef exports fell 27.1% in August by volume, with USD 1.2bn shipped, as the tariff-free limit was reached. Global Inflation: OECD pegged global inflation at 4.1% (with energy inflation above 10% for a fourth straight month), while noting declines in several major economies including Brazil. Growth Outlook: Roland Berger says Brazil could double GDP growth to 4% annually by 2050 if it tackles debt, high interest rates, low productivity, government inefficiencies and school learning gaps. Air Connectivity: Latam Airlines will launch a direct Cuzco–São Paulo route from March 29, 2027, with four weekly flights. Crypto & Banking: Revolut received conditional U.S. OCC approval to set up a national bank in Stamford, targeting a 2027 launch. Amazon Health: New analysis links mercury contamination to 951 Amazon communities across Peru, Bolivia and Brazil, with many exceeding WHO-safe limits and forcing diet changes.

Shipping & Mining Deal: South Korean shipper HMM signed a 4.7 trillion-won ($3.5bn) 25-year bulk shipping contract with Brazil’s Vale, deploying eight 210,000-ton Newcastlemax vessels from 2030; the ships will use tri-fuel engines (methanol, ethanol, heavy fuel oil) and be LNG/ammonia-ready, with wind-assisted “rotor sails” to cut fuel use and emissions. Pharma in Brazil: Biocon secured a 10-year Pertuzumab supply deal in Brazil under the Productive Development Partnership (PDP), partnering with Bahiafarma and Bionovis; the consortium gets full allocation and will localize production over time to serve Brazil’s public oncology demand. Blockchain for Compliance: Cardano Foundation and Blockforce launched a dual-ledger supply chain verification system for Brazilian fashion exporters, anchoring 500,000+ records on Cardano while keeping sensitive commercial data on permissioned Hyperledger Fabric to meet EU deforestation rules. Legal/Permitting Risk: Sigma Lithium says it has not received legal communication about a preliminary ruling allegedly suspending environmental licenses for its Grota do Cirilo mine, insisting operations continue and it will mount a legal defense. Tech & Payments: Lula said Brazil will defend its Pix payment system amid a US tariff dispute, underscoring the push to protect local digital infrastructure. Energy Transition Watch: China paused approvals for new battery storage factories not yet under construction, citing overcapacity—an update that could ripple through global supply chains.

Brazil Supreme Court: Brazil’s top court feud deepened as justices clashed over a corruption probe tied to the collapsed Banco Master, with sanctions sought against each other just weeks before the Oct. 4 presidential vote. Betting Regulation: Brazil’s centralized self-exclusion system topped 1.2 million voluntary exclusions in about eight months, signaling rapid adoption in the regulated fixed-odds market. Payments & Tech: Brazil’s Pix is in the spotlight again, with reports that Brazil and the ECB are exploring a cross-border instant payments link. Trade & Industry: Brazil’s antitrust watchdog cleared Arqia’s acquisition of Algar’s IoT unit, while Vale shelved a base-metals IPO amid political pushback. Energy & Minerals: Brazil’s rare-earth push continues as the country moves to close legal gaps and advance projects tied to critical minerals supply chains. Food Prices: Global food prices stayed elevated, with sugar and grains pressured by weather and war-related supply disruptions—an issue that can quickly feed into Brazil’s inflation outlook.

Rare Earths Push: Viridis Mining placed a long-lead equipment order for its Colossus rare earths project in Brazil, aiming for 2028 production after completing a definitive feasibility study and securing up to US$120m in equity funding. Pre-Feasibility for Uberaba: Rainbow Rare Earths and Mosaic started a pre-feasibility study for Uberaba in Minas Gerais, using phosphogypsum waste and targeting a maiden JORC resource estimate, with study work expected to finish in 2H 2027. Tax Policy Watch: India’s BRICS summit is behind a delay to Brazil-relevant GST Council timing, with the meeting moved from Sept. 12 to Oct. 7. Payments & Fintech: Ant International won a Payment Institution licence in Brazil from the Central Bank, expanding PIX and cross-border payment/account services for merchants and SMEs. Energy & Trade: Bloomberg reports Chinese oil demand is lifting crude prices globally, with spillovers felt from the Middle East to Brazil as Hormuz disruptions keep markets tight. Food Prices: FAO says August global food prices rose 1.9%, with sugar up 11.9%—citing El Niño impacts and lower Brazil output.

Pix Under Tariff Pressure: Lula says he will defend Brazil’s Pix instant payments system in talks with US President Trump amid a tariff dispute, urging Washington to “use Pix” and see how it works. Oil & Gas Services: Oil States Brasil won a three-year Petrobras subsea contract for maintenance, inspection, integrity analysis and intervention support across offshore assets. Energy Market Watch: Opec’s secretary general reiterated that stabilizing oil markets is the priority and pushed back on claims of price manipulation, pointing to route and logistics resilience amid Hormuz risks. BRICS+ Summit Finance: iBRICS Summit in New Delhi (Sept 12-13) is set to bring 500+ institutional investors and sovereign capital allocators managing about $1T, with a focus on cross-border investment channels beyond dollar clearing. BRICS+ Geopolitics: A new analysis argues US tariff threats may be strengthening BRICS cohesion by reinforcing members’ sovereignty and multilateral development goals. Food Prices & Brazil Link: FAO reports global food prices at the highest since late 2022; sugar jumped 11.9% in August, with Brazil’s Center-South production concerns cited. Brazil Trade/Industry: Embraer is expanding its India supply chain across commercial and defence, including aerospace-grade aluminium and forged components partnerships. Sports Business: Hakim Ziyech is in advanced talks to join Botafogo ahead of the Sept 11 transfer deadline.

Pix vs. US tariffs: President Lula says he will defend Brazil’s Pix instant payments system in talks with Donald Trump, arguing the platform is “non-negotiable” amid a tariff dispute that includes up to 25% duties on some Brazilian goods. BRICS capital push: Organisers say more than 500 institutional investors and sovereign-linked funds will join the iBRICS Summit in New Delhi next week, targeting a $1 trillion sovereign capital pool and linking fast-payment networks like Pix with broader cross-border settlement efforts. Brazil-EU trade pressure: Brazil claims “progress” on an EU ban affecting poultry and honey exports, while the dispute remains a live risk for exporters and supply chains. Food inflation backdrop: Global food prices hit the highest level since 2022, with weather and war disruptions feeding into higher costs that can spill into Brazil’s consumer market. Tech and payments ecosystem: Brazil’s Pix continues to draw international attention as regulators and investors look for faster, lower-cost payment rails. Sports-business signal: Brazil’s Luisa Stefani and partner Gabriela Dabrowski advanced at the U.S. Open, a reminder of how athlete branding keeps feeding sponsorship and media value.

Food & Commodities: The UN’s FAO said global food prices rose in August to the highest level since late 2022, with wheat and sugar climbing on weather shocks, Black Sea disruptions and El Niño risk. Brazil–EU Trade: Brazil says it has made progress to restart EU poultry and honey imports after an EU audit, while the broader animal-product dispute continues. Energy & Shipping: Oil importers are adapting to longer, more dispersed routes as Iran-related tensions disrupt key corridors, raising costs and reshaping supply chains. Climate & Health: Brazil unveiled AdaptaSUS, a 2026–2027 plan to prepare the public health system for El Niño-linked emergencies and climate-driven disease risks. Brazil Economy & Markets: Brazil’s GDP growth slowed in Q2 but still beat forecasts, while high rates remain a drag on domestic demand. BRICS Legal Cooperation: India’s CJI Surya Kant urged BRICS to act like a “living Nalanda University,” pushing judicial dialogue and faster, more predictable justice. Security & Trade Risks: A major cocaine seizure off Spain’s Canary Islands highlights how trafficking routes keep shifting toward Europe.

Brazil–EU Trade: Brazil signaled possible countermeasures as the EU meat ban takes effect, while Brussels says exports can resume once safety requirements are met—keeping animal-product trade and compliance costs in the spotlight. Mining Oversight: Brazil’s Congress approved a bill to tighten control over mining deals, including a special council for ownership changes and limits on foreign takeovers, alongside tax breaks and a mining guarantee fund. Supreme Court Fallout: Leaked messages tied to Banco Master banker Daniel Vorcaro have reignited tensions inside Brazil’s Supreme Court ahead of the election, with Chief Justice Edson Fachin stressing legality while Lula pushes for judicial reform. Food Prices: The FAO reported global food prices rose to the highest level since late 2022, driven by weather and trade disruptions—raising pressure on Brazil’s agribusiness margins and input costs. BRICS Justice Track: India’s Chief Justice Surya Kant used the BRICS Chief Justices’ Forum to push arbitration/mediation platforms to speed commercial dispute resolution.

EU Meat Ban Fallout: The EU suspended imports of Brazilian beef, pork, chicken, eggs, honey and other animal-origin products after concerns over antimicrobial controls; exports can resume once Brazil proves compliance and an EU audit reviews supply chains. Food Inflation Pressure: The UN FAO said global food prices rose in August to the highest since late 2022, driven by weather shocks and war-related disruptions, lifting cereals, oils, sugar, meat and dairy. Brazil-US Trade Friction: Trump’s beef plan and tariff moves keep spotlighting Brazil in US import sourcing, while US lawmakers and cattle groups warn of market impacts. Antitrust Beef Probe (US): The DOJ expanded its beef price investigation to eight retailers, including Walmart and Amazon, as inflation becomes a midterm issue. FDI Snapshot for LatAm: FDI in Latin America rose in 2025 to $194.2bn, with Brazil and Mexico the top recipients, led by US and Europe. Brazil Tech & Payments: Ant International secured a Central Bank of Brazil licence for local and cross-border payments, while Pix-to-Europe instant payments links are being studied. Climate in Cities: A COP30-linked initiative is using an AI “City Climate Compass” to help Brazilian municipalities plan and prioritize climate action.

EU Meat Trade Clash: Brazil voiced “deep concern” after the EU suspended Brazilian meat imports over animal-health and antibiotic-use guarantees, with Brussels citing insufficient proof and no clear restart date. Brazilian Finance & Regulation: Revolut secured conditional approval from the US OCC for a national bank charter, moving toward a 2027 launch and expanding its licensing push across markets including Brazil. Tech & Data Infrastructure: Alibaba Cloud launched its first South America cloud region in Brazil with new Sao Paulo data centers, aiming at low-latency, data-governance-ready AI and cloud services. Climate & Cities: On Amazon Day, Brazil’s urban climate strategy spotlighted multilevel action via “Brazil Mutirão,” backing Amazon cities with mobility electrification, circular economy and methane-reduction projects. Judicial Pressure in Brazil: Supreme Court justice Alexandre de Moraes faced calls to resign after reported links to disgraced banker Daniel Vorcaro emerged from federal police documents. Commodities Watch: Sugar prices slid after India eased expectations for imports, while El Niño risks kept broader weather-driven uncertainty in focus.

Instant Payments & Cross-Border Finance: Brazil’s central bank is in talks with the ECB to connect Pix with Europe’s TIPS, with a possible operational pilot in June 2028—another step toward Pix becoming a cross-border payments bridge. Tropical Forest Finance: The UK pledged a £400m loan to the Brazil-led Tropical Forests Forever Facility, aiming to pay countries for keeping tropical forests intact and boosting long-term conservation funding. EU Beef Shock: The EU beef ban on Brazil takes effect amid antibiotic concerns, while an economist says Brazil could still be central to any expanded U.S. beef imports—though details on what’s truly “new” remain unclear. Digital Banking & AI: PicPay is integrating Anthropic’s Claude so customers can check balances and transactions via natural-language queries inside the PicPay environment. Climate & Amazon Restoration: A study finds just 15–25 tree species drive much of regrowing Amazon forest carbon and trees, offering a practical guide for Brazil’s restoration targets. Women’s Amazon Microcredit: EIB Global and Banco do Brasil unlocked €500m in microcredit for women entrepreneurs across Brazil’s Legal Amazon.

Data Centers & Power Policy: Brazil’s Senate approved the Redata tax regime for data center services, tying incentives to contracted electricity demand using renewable or low-emission power—aimed at pulling more clean generation into the grid. Food & Trade Tensions: Ireland’s beef sector welcomed an EU ban on Brazilian beef over antimicrobial compliance concerns, warning the knock-on could push more Brazilian meat toward the UK. Corporate Investment: Nestlé plans to invest CHF310 million in Brazil’s nutrition business by 2028, including a new baby-food plant in Ituiutaba and capacity expansion for key ingredients like whey. Cybersecurity: Researchers flagged “Gambling Goblin” turning compromised Brazilian government sites into stealth phishing proxies, using hijacked trusted domains to route victims to scam pages. Energy Markets: An analysis says Americas oil exports are rising sharply amid Iran-related disruptions, with Brazil among the beneficiaries. BRICS Payments: BRICS is exploring links between members’ digital currencies (including Brazil’s Drex) to reduce dollar reliance in cross-border trade.

Trade & Investment: ApexBrasil opened a permanent trade and investment office in Addis Ababa, aiming to deepen Brazil–Ethiopia commercial ties after a Southern Africa mission and high-level visits, with a focus on agribusiness, green energy and tech transfer. Finance & Payments: Félix, a fintech built for Latino immigrants, closed a $200m Series C and is moving beyond remittances into loans and savings, while Brazil’s payment systems also face rising cybercrime risk as hackers execute fraudulent transfers. Energy & Commodities: Brazil’s coffee market slid as harvest expectations rise, while El Niño risk is reshaping Brazil’s power price outlook. Policy & Regulation: Brazil advanced rules for hydrogen subsidies and tax breaks, and lawmakers debated election-related uncertainty amid a Supreme Court crisis. Agri & Food Trade: EU moves to suspend Brazilian meat imports over compliance concerns, raising pressure on exporters and potential knock-on effects for UK market access.

Brazil Economy & Policy: Brazil’s economy grew 0.5% in Q2 2026, but the slowdown keeps pressure on households and fiscal planning as election-year spending debates resurface. EU Trade & Food Exports: The EU moved to suspend Brazilian meat imports over compliance concerns, adding fresh uncertainty for exporters already facing tariff and market-access friction. Digital Economy & Regulation: Brazil fined TikTok nearly $30m for children’s data protection failures and ordered deletions, underscoring tougher online safety enforcement ahead of the presidential race. Finance & Payments: Mercado Pago is expanding credit card services despite consumer-debt worries, while Mercado Bitcoin and Bitso are pushing deeper into Brazil’s crypto and payments competition. Energy & Industry: Siemens Energy plans to spin off its Transformation of Industry unit into a standalone company, signaling a major restructuring in industrial energy services. Agribusiness: Brazil’s soybean planting pace is slowing, and herbicide use has risen sharply—both themes that could shape costs and sustainability debates.